A comparison of HPV DNA testing and liquid based cytology over three rounds of primary cervical screening: extended follow up in the ARTISTIC trial.

BACKGROUND: The additional sensitivity of HPV testing compared with cytology could permit extended cervical screening intervals. We wished to determine, through a further (third) round of screening in the ARTISTIC trial, the protection provided by a negative baseline HPV screen compared with that of cytology over a 6 year period. METHODS: Cumulative rates of CIN2 or worse (CIN2+) and CIN3 or worse (CIN3+) were correlated with baseline HPV status and cytology. HPV was detected using the Hybrid Capture 2 (Qiagen) assay for high risk types and genotyped using the Linear Array (Roche) and Papillocheck (Greiner) assays. LBC was performed using ThinPrep (Hologic). FINDINGS: Round 3 included 8,873 women of whom 6,337 had been screened in both rounds 1 and 2 and 2,536 had not been screened since round 1. The median duration of follow-up was 72.7 months. The cumulative rate of CIN2+ over three rounds was 3.88% (95%CI 3.59%, 4.17%) overall; 2.39% in round 1, 0.78% in round 2 and 0.74% in round 3. Cumulative rates by baseline status were 20.53% (95%CI 19.04%, 22.08%) for abnormal cytology, 20.12% (95%CI 18.68%, 21.61%) for HPV detection, 1.41% (95%CI 1.19%, 1.65%) for negative cytology and 0.87% (95%CI 0.70%, 1.06%) for a negative HPV test. In HPV negative women aged over 50 the cumulative rate was 0.16% (95%CI 0.07%, 0.34%). Women who were HPV positive/cytology negative at entry had a cumulative CIN2+ rate of 7.73% (95%CI 6.29%, 9.36%) over 6 years, twice the overall rate. INTERPRETATION: A negative HPV test was significantly more protective than normal cytology over three rounds. The findings of this extension of ARTISTIC suggest that the screening interval could be extended to 6 years if HPV testing replaced cytology as the primary screening test

The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of primary human papillomavirus cervical screening in England: extended follow-up of the ARTISTIC randomised trial cohort through three screening rounds.

BACKGROUND: The ARTISTIC (A Randomised Trial In Screening To Improve Cytology) trial originally reported after two rounds of primary cervical screening with human papillomavirus (HPV). Extended follow-up of the randomised trial cohort through a third round could provide valuable insight into the duration of protection of a negative HPV test, which could allow extended screening intervals. If HPV primary screening is to be considered in the national programme, then determining its cost-effectiveness is key, and a detailed economic analysis using ARTISTIC data is needed. AIMS/OBJECTIVES: (1) To determine the round 3 and cumulative rates of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 2 or worse (2+) and CIN grade 3 or worse (CIN3+) between the revealed and concealed arms of ARTISTIC after three screening rounds over 6 years. (2) To compare the cumulative incidence of CIN2+ over three screening rounds following negative screening cytology with that following negative baseline HPV. (3) To determine whether or not HPV screening could safely extend the screening interval from 3 to 6 years. (4) To study the potential clinical utility of an increased cut-off of 2 relative light unit/mean control (RLU/Co) for Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) and HPV genotyping in primary cervical screening. (5) To determine the potential impact of HPV vaccination with Cervarix™ in terms of preventing abnormal cytology and CIN2+. (6) To determine the cost-effectiveness of HPV primary screening compared with current practice using cervical cytology in England. DESIGN: The ARTISTIC study cohort was recalled for a third round of screening 3 years after round 2 and 6 years following their enrolment to the study. Both arms of the original trial used a single protocol during round 3. SETTING: ARTISTIC study cohort undergoing cervical screening in primary care in Greater Manchester, UK. PARTICIPANTS: Between July 2007 and September 2009, 8873 women participated in round 3; 6337 had been screened in round 2 and 2536 had not been screened since round 1. INTERVENTIONS: All women underwent liquid-based cytology and HPV testing and genotyping. Colposcopy was offered to women with moderate dyskaryosis or worse and with HPV-positive mild dyskaryosis/borderline changes. Women with negative cytology or HPV-negative mild dyskaryosis/borderline changes were returned to routine recall. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Principal outcomes were cumulative rates of CIN2+ over three screening rounds by cytology and HPV status at entry; HPV type specific rates of CIN2+; effect of age on outcomes correlated with cytology and HPV status; comparison of HC2 cut-off RLU/Co of both 1 and 2; and cost-effectiveness of HPV primary screening. RESULTS: The median duration of follow-up was 72.7 months in round 3. Over the three screening rounds, there was no significant difference in CIN2+ [odds ratio (OR): 1.06, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.89 to 1.26, p = 0.5)] or CIN3+ (OR: 0.90, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.14, p = 0.4) rates between the trial arms (revealed vs. concealed). Overall, 16% of women were HC2 positive at entry, decreasing from 40% in women aged 20-24 years to around 7% in women aged over 50 years. Abnormal cytology rates at entry were 13% for borderline+ and 2% for moderate+ cytology. Following positive cytology at entry, the cumulative rate of CIN2+ was 20.5%, and was 20.1% following a HPV-positive result at baseline. The cumulative CIN2+ rate for women who were HPV negative at baseline was only 0.87% (95% CI 0.70% to 1.06%) after three rounds of screening, significantly lower than that for women with negative cytology, which was 1.41% (95% CI 1.19% to 1.65%). Women who were HPV negative at baseline had similar protection from CIN2+ after 6 years as women who were cytology negative at baseline after 3 years. Women who were HPV positive/cytology negative at baseline had a cumulative CIN2+ rate at 6 years of 7.7%, significantly higher than that for women who were cytology positive/HPV negative (3.2%). Women who were HPV type 16 positive at baseline had a cumulative CIN2+ rate over three rounds of 43.6% compared with 20.1% for any HPV-positive test. Using a HC2 cut-off of RLU/Co ≥ 2 would maintain acceptable sensitivity and result in 16% fewer HPV-positive results. Typing data suggested that around 55-60% of high-grade cytology and CIN2+, but less than 25% of low-grade cytology, would be prevented by HPV vaccine given current rates of coverage in the UK national programme. For the cost-effectiveness analysis, most of the primary HPV strategies examined where HPV was used as the sole primary test were cost saving in both unvaccinated and vaccinated cohorts under baseline cost assumptions, with a 7-18% reduction in annual screening-associated costs in unvaccinated cohorts and a 9-22% reduction for vaccinated cohorts. Utilising partial genotyping at the primary screening stage to identify women with HPV 16/18 and referring them to colposcopy was the most effective strategy (barring co-testing, which is significantly more costly than any other strategies considered), resulting in 83 additional life-years per 100,000 women for unvaccinated women when compared with current practice, and similar life-years saved compared with current practice for vaccinated women. In unvaccinated cohorts, however, this genotyping strategy is predicted to result in a 20% increase in the number of colposcopies performed in England, although in vaccinated cohorts the number of colposcopy referrals was predicted to be lower than in current practice. For all strategies in which HPV is used as the sole primary screening test, decreasing the follow-up interval for intermediate-risk women from 24 to 12 months increased the overall effectiveness of primary HPV screening. In exploratory analysis, strategies for which cytology screening was retained until either age 30 or 35 years, and for which HPV testing was used at older ages, were predicted to be of higher costs and intermediate effectiveness than those associated with full implementation of primary HPV screening from age 25 years. However, this finding should be interpreted with caution as it depends on assumptions made about screening behaviour and compliance with recommendations at the 'switch over' point. CONCLUSIONS: HPV testing as an initial screen was significantly more protective over three rounds (6 years) than the current practice of cytology and the use of primary HPV screening could allow a safe lengthening of the screening interval. A substantial decrease in high-grade cytology and CIN2+ can be expected as a consequence of the HPV vaccination programme. A HC2 cut-off of 2RLU/Co instead of the manufacturer's recommended cut-off of 1 would be clinically beneficial in terms of an optimal balance between sensitivity and specificity. Modelled analysis predicts that primary HPV screening would be both more effective and cost saving compared with current practice with cervical cytology for a number of potential strategies in both unvaccinated and vaccinated cohorts. Compliance with surveillance and optimal management of HPV-positive/cytology-negative women after primary HPV screening is of key importance. Limitations of the economic investigation included the need to make assumptions around compliance with screening attendance and follow-up for longer screening intervals in the future, assumptions regarding maintenance of current uptake vaccination in the future, and assumptions regarding the stability of cost of HPV and cytology tests in the future. Detailed sensitivity analysis across a range of possible assumptions was conducted to address these issues. This study and the economic evaluation lend support to convert from cytology to HPV-based screening. Future work should include researching (i) the attitudes of women who test HPV positive/cytology negative, (ii) the value of complementary biomarkers and (iii) activities relevant to primary HPV screening in unvaccinated and vaccinated populations from the point of view of QALY assessment. STUDY REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN25417821

HPV testing compared with routine cytology in cervical screening: long-term follow-up of ARTISTIC RCT

Background: The National Screening Committee (NSC) based its recommendation that human papillomavirus (HPV) testing should replace cytology in primary cervical screening largely on the 2009 follow-up results of the ARTISTIC trial (A Randomised Trial In Screening To Improve Cytology). The NSC must now decide on screening intervals and triage policy. Options include extending the screening interval up to 10 years for human papillomavirus-negative (HPV–) women, delaying recall for human papillomavirus-positive (HPV+) women with normal cytology (as their infections are usually transient), and basing triage on full HPV typing. Methods: In ARTISTIC, 24,510 women were recruited who were attending routine cervical cytology in Greater Manchester in 2001–3. The women were randomly allocated between revealing and concealing their HPV test results and were recalled every 3 years. After 2009, the women returned to routine cytological screening with recall every 3 years for those aged 50 years. The 10-year cumulative CIN3+ risk following a new HPV infection at round 2 was 3.4% (95% CI 2.1% to 5.4%). The highest risks were associated with type-specific persistent infections that, overall, resulted in a 10-year cumulative CIN3+ risk of 20.4% (95% CI 15.6% to 26.4%). Conclusions: We found a similar level of protection 10 years after a negative HPV test and 3 years after negative cytology. These data support a considerably longer screening interval after a negative HPV test than after a negative cytology test. About three-quarters of women with HPV infection and normal cytology clear their infections within about 3 years. Their risk of CIN3+ within this time frame is low (1.5%), suggesting that the current policy of annual repeat testing and referral after 2 years may be unnecessarily cautious. Approximately 40% of women who remained HPV+ had cleared their initial infection and acquired a new HPV type. The cumulative CIN3+ risks in women with type-specific persistent infections are about six times higher than in women with new infections. Triage strategies based on HPV persistence would, therefore, reduce unnecessary referral of women with new (and largely transient) infections. HPV assays that identify HPV types 31, 33, 45, 52 and 58 in addition to 16 and 18 could be useful in triage as well as in primary HPV testing. Similar results in recent routine HPV screening suggest that our results are generalisable despite changes in cytology and HPV assay methods. We are continuing to follow the ARTISTIC cohort into the new era of primary HPV screening. Future work will focus on the implications of more sensitive HPV testing for primary HPV screening policy and triage of HPV-positive women. Our results suggest that a more sensitive test is needed to detect occult CIN3 at high risk of progression to cancer, butthis would substantially increase the overall HPV detection rate. Tests such as DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid) methylation for distinguishing HPV infection from neoplasia will be evaluated on stored samples and on further samples now being collected from women in the cohort who are still being screened

Diets of European polecat Mustela putorius in Great Britain during fifty years of population recovery

Following nineteenth-century declines, polecats Mustela putorius are recolonising Great Britain. Polecat diet relates to two potential risks to recovery. First, rabbits Oryctolagus cuniculus, which are important prey for polecats, have experienced extreme population fluctuations, with near extirpation due to myxomatosis in the 1950s, recovery in 1960s–1990s and declines in 1990s–2010s. Second, polecats are secondarily exposed to anticoagulant rodenticides by eating contaminated rodents, and the frequency of polecat exposure to rodenticides is increasing. We analysed stomach contents from 99 polecats collected in 2012–2016 and compared results with earlier studies. Lagomorphs were the most abundant prey (66% frequency of occurrence, 95% confidence interval 53–74%), followed by other mammals (12%, 4–18%), amphibians (10%, 3–16%) and birds (7%, 1–13%). Diet varied seasonally; lagomorph occurrence was highest in spring and summer and lowest in autumn. Dietary niche breadth was greater in the 1960s, when rabbits were scarce, than in other decades, but did not differ between the 1990s and 2010s, indicating that diets have not diversified with recent rabbit declines. This may be because rabbit abundance is not yet low enough to cause dietary diversification or because polecats were collected in areas where rabbits were still abundant. Rodents did not increase in diet between the 1990s and 2010s and still occur with < 10% frequency, indicating that rodents need not contribute much to diet to expose polecats to rodenticides. This potentially limits the effectiveness of management actions designed to minimise polecat exposure to contaminated rodent prey

Long-term increase in secondary exposure to anticoagulant rodenticides in European polecats Mustela putorius in Great Britain

As a result of legal protection and population recovery, European polecats (Mustela putorius) in Great Britain are expanding into areas associated with greater usage of second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides (SGARs). We analysed polecat livers collected from road casualties from 2013 to 2016 for residues of five SGARs. We related variation in residues to polecat traits and potential exposure pathways, by analysing stable isotopes of carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) in their whiskers. 54 of 68 (79%) polecats had detectable residues of at least one SGAR. Bromadiolone (71%) was the most frequently detected compound, followed by difenacoum (53%) and brodifacoum (35%). Applying historical limits of detection to allow comparison between these new data and previous assessments, we show that in the 25 years from 1992 to 2016 inclusive, the rate of detection of SGARs in polecats in Britain has increased by a factor of 1.7. The probability of SGAR detection was positively related to increasing values of δ15N, suggesting that polecats feeding at a higher trophic level were more likely to be exposed. Total concentrations of SGARs in polecats with detectable residues were higher in polecats collected in arable compared to pastoral habitats, and in the west compared to the east of Britain. The number of compounds detected and total concentrations of SGARs increased with polecat age. There was no evidence of regional or seasonal variation in the probability of detecting SGARs, suggesting that the current risk of exposure to SGARs does not vary seasonally and has increased (from that in the 1990s) throughout the polecat's range. We recommend quantification of current practices in rodenticide usage, particularly in the light of recent regulatory changes, to enable assessment and mitigation of the risks of secondary exposure to rodenticides in non-target wildlife

Radiation Therapy Techniques and Treatment-Related Toxicity in the PORTEC-3 Trial:Comparison of 3-Dimensional Conformal Radiation Therapy Versus Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy

Purpose Radiation therapy techniques have developed from 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3DCRT) to intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT), with better sparing of the surrounding normal tissues. The current analysis aimed to investigate whether IMRT, compared to 3DCRT, resulted in fewer adverse events (AEs) and patient-reported symptoms in the randomized PORTEC-3 trial for high-risk endometrial cancer. Methods and Materials Data on AEs and patient-reported quality of life (QoL) of the PORTEC-3 trial were available for analysis. Physician-reported AEs were graded using Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events v3.0. QoL was assessed by the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer QLQC30, CX24, and OV28 questionnaires. Data were compared between 3DCRT and IMRT. A P value of ≤ .01 was considered statistically significant due to the risk of multiple testing. For QoL, combined scores 1 to 2 (“not at all” and “a little”) versus 3 to 4 (“quite a bit” and “very much”) were compared between the techniques. Results Of 658 evaluable patients, 559 received 3DCRT and 99 IMRT. Median follow-up was 74.6 months. During treatment no significant differences were observed, with a trend for more grade ≥3 AEs, mostly hematologic and gastrointestinal, after 3DCRT (37.7% vs 26.3%, P = .03). During follow-up, 15.4% (vs 4%) had grade ≥2 diarrhea, and 26.1% (vs 13.1%) had grade ≥2 hematologic AEs after 3DCRT (vs IMRT) (both P < .01). Among 574 (87%) patients evaluable for QoL, 494 received 3DCRT and 80 IMRT. During treatment, 37.5% (vs 28.6%) reported diarrhea after 3DCRT (vs IMRT) (P = .125); 22.1% (versus 10.0%) bowel urgency (P = 0039), and 18.2% and 8.6% abdominal cramps (P = .058). Other QoL scores showed no differences. Conclusions IMRT resulted in fewer grade ≥3 AEs during treatment and significantly lower rates of grade ≥2 diarrhea and hematologic AEs during follow-up. Trends toward fewer patient-reported bowel urgency and abdominal cramps were observed after IMRT compared to 3DCRT

Molecular Classification of the PORTEC-3 Trial for High-Risk Endometrial Cancer:Impact on Prognosis and Benefit From Adjuvant Therapy

PURPOSE The randomized Adjuvant Chemoradiotherapy Versus Radiotherapy Alone in Women With High-Risk Endometrial Cancer (PORTEC-3) trial investigated the benefit of combined adjuvant chemotherapy and radiotherapy (CTRT) versus radiotherapy alone (RT) for women with high-risk endometrial cancer (EC). Because The Cancer Genome Atlas defined an EC molecular classification with strong prognostic value, we investigated prognosis and impact of chemotherapy for each molecular subgroup using tissue samples from PORTEC-3 trial participants. METHODS Paraffin-embedded tissues of 423 consenting patients were collected. Immunohistochemistry for p53 and mismatch repair (MMR) proteins, and DNA sequencing for POLE exonuclease domain were done to classify tumors as p53 abnormal (p53abn), POLE-ultramutated (POLEmut), MMR-deficient (MMRd), or no specific molecular profile (NSMP). The primary end point was recurrence-free survival (RFS). Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test, and Cox model were used for analysis. RESULTS Molecular analysis was successful in 410 high-risk EC (97%), identifying the 4 subgroups: P53abn EC (n = 93; 23%), POLEmut (n = 51; 12%), MMRd (n = 137; 33%), and NSMP (n = 129; 32%). Five-year RFS was 48% for patients with p53abn EC, 98% for POLEmut EC, 72% for MMRd EC, and 74% for NSMP EC (P <001). The 5-year RFS with CTRT versus RT for p53abn EC was 59% versus 36% (P =019); 100% versus 97% for patients with POLEmut EC (P =637); 68% versus 76% (P =428) for MMRd EC; and 80% versus 68% (P =243) for NSMP EC. CONCLUSION Molecular classification has strong prognostic value in high-risk EC, with significantly improved RFS with adjuvant CTRT for p53abn tumors, regardless of histologic type. Patients with POLEmut EC had an excellent RFS in both trial arms. EC molecular classification should be incorporated in the risk stratification of these patients as well as in future trials to target specific subgroups of patients

Patterns of recurrence in the randomised PORTEC-3 trial of chemoradiotherapy for endometrial cancer

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Genomic patterns in the widespread Eurasian lynx shaped by Late Quaternary climatic fluctuations and anthropogenic impacts.

Disentangling the contribution of long-term evolutionary processes and recent anthropogenic impacts to current genetic patterns of wildlife species is key for assessing genetic risks and designing conservation strategies. Here, we used 80 whole nuclear genomes and 96 mitogenomes from populations of the Eurasian lynx covering a range of conservation statuses, climatic zones and subspecies across Eurasia to infer the demographic history, reconstruct genetic patterns and discuss the influence of long-term isolation and/or more recent human-driven changes. Our results show that Eurasian lynx populations shared a common history until 100 kya, when Asian and European populations started to diverge and both entered a period of continuous and widespread decline, with western populations, except Kirov, maintaining lower effective sizes than eastern populations. Population declines and increased isolation in more recent times likely drove the genetic differentiation between geographically and ecologically close westernmost European populations. By contrast, and despite the wide range of habitats covered, populations are quite homogeneous genetically across the Asian range, showing a pattern of isolation by distance and providing little genetic support for the several proposed subspecies. Mitogenomic and nuclear divergences and population declines starting during the Late Pleistocene can be mostly attributed to climatic fluctuations and early human influence, but the widespread and sustained decline since the Holocene is more probably the consequence of anthropogenic impacts which intensified during the last centuries, especially in western Europe. Genetic erosion in isolated European populations and lack of evidence for long-term isolation argue for the restoration of lost population connectivity

Long-Term Toxicity and Health-Related Quality of Life After Adjuvant Chemoradiation Therapy or Radiation Therapy Alone for High-Risk Endometrial Cancer in the Randomized PORTEC-3 Trial

PURPOSE: The survival results of the PORTEC-3 trial showed a significant improvement in both overall and failure-free survival with chemoradiation therapy versus pelvic radiation therapy alone. The present analysis was performed to compare long-term adverse events (AE) and health-related quality of life (HRQOL). METHODS AND MATERIALS: In the study, 660 women with high-risk endometrial cancer were randomly assigned to receive chemoradiation therapy (2 concurrent cycles of cisplatin followed by 4 cycles of carboplatin/paclitaxel) or radiation therapy alone. Toxicity was graded using Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, version 3.0. HRQOL was measured using EORTC QLQ-C30 and CX24/OV28 subscales and compared with normative data. An as-treated analysis was performed. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 74.6 months; 574 (87%) patients were evaluable for HRQOL. At 5 years, grade ≥2 AE were scored for 78 (38%) patients who had received chemoradiation therapy versus 46 (24%) who had received radiation therapy alone (P = .008). Grade 3 AE did not differ significantly between the groups (8% vs 5%, P = .18) at 5 years, and only one new late grade 4 toxicity had been reported. At 3 and 5 years, sensory neuropathy toxicity grade ≥2 persisted after chemoradiation therapy in 6% (vs 0% after radiation therapy, P < .001) and more patients reported significant tingling or numbness at HRQOL (27% vs 8%, P < .001 at 3 years; 24% vs 9%, P = .002 at 5 years). Up to 3 years, more patients who had chemoradiation therapy reported limb weakness (21% vs 5%, P < .001) and lower physical (79 vs 87, P < .001) and role functioning (78 vs 88, P < .001) scores. Both treatment groups reported similar long-term global health/quality of life scores, which were better than those of the normative population. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows a long-lasting, clinically relevant, negative impact of chemoradiation therapy on toxicity and HRQOL, most importantly persistent peripheral sensory neuropathy. Physical and role functioning impairments were seen until 3 years. These long-term data are essential for patient information and shared decision-making regarding adjuvant chemotherapy for high-risk endometrial cancer